Pakistan’s basmati exports: September 2026 rebound explained

Published 26 October 2026. Analysis by OneRice.

Pakistan’s September 2026 basmati export rebound was led by volume. Shipments rose 188.3% from a year earlier and dollar receipts increased 173.0%, but the average export value per tonne declined 5.3%. For importers, that is a reason to separate shipment growth from price movements before interpreting a market headline.

What the September figures show

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics September export workbook, retrieved on 26 October, reports the following basmati-only figures:

Tonnes and unit values are rounded to whole numbers. Calculations use the workbook’s underlying values.

Currency matters here. PBS’s accompanying release statement reports September basmati earnings of PKR 31.12 billion, up 168.88% year over year. That rupee growth rate differs from the dollar growth rate above. Neither percentage measures a change in the price of a particular rice variety.

Why US$1,108 per tonne is not a supplier quotation

An export unit value is total recorded export value divided by total recorded tonnage. It combines shipments with different specifications, destinations, packing arrangements and contract dates.

A lower average can reflect a different mix of shipments, lower prices within that mix, or both. These aggregate figures cannot isolate the cause. They also do not identify a separate transaction price for 1121, 1509 or Super Basmati.

An importer should therefore use the average as historical market context. It is not an executable offer, a destination-specific landed cost, or proof that every basmati grade became cheaper. A supplier’s current offer needs its own specification, delivery basis and validity period.

The quarter gives a different unit-value signal

For July–September 2026, Pakistan’s basmati volume rose 80.2% and dollar export value rose 86.3%, compared with July–September 2025. Calculated average value increased from about US$1,082 to US$1,118 per tonne, or 3.4%.

That is the first quarter of Pakistan’s 2026/27 fiscal year, not a full-year result. September’s year-on-year unit value fell, while the quarter’s rose. Both observations can be correct because they cover different shipment mixes and comparison periods.

The practical lesson is to keep monthly and quarterly comparisons separate. One exceptionally strong month is insufficient evidence of a lasting change in pricing power.

Keep the global outlook separate from basmati shipment data

In its 14 October 2026 Rice Outlook, USDA projected world rice trade for calendar year 2027 at 61.4 million tonnes, on a milled basis. That was 1.3 million tonnes below its previous month’s forecast.

This is an all-rice forecast, covering more than basmati. It does not establish a shortage of Pakistani basmati or predict a price for an individual variety. Pakistan’s completed September shipments and a worldwide forecast for the following calendar year answer different questions.

How buyers can use this information

• Track quantity and unit value separately. Revenue growth alone cannot show whether more rice was shipped or a higher average value was achieved.
• Check the explanation behind a changed offer. Ask which specific cost or specification changed, and compare it with your previous offer. Our basmati quotation checklist explains the details to keep consistent.
• Plan against confirmed delivery dates. Base replenishment on your stock, expected sales and supplier-confirmed dispatch arrangements. A national export surge does not confirm an individual mill’s available stock or loading slot.

For enquiries about OneRice’s 1121, 1509 and Super Basmati range, discuss your requirements with our team.

Sources and calculation notes

• PBS, September 2026 foreign trade release, published 15 October 2026: release page and statement PDF.
• PBS, September 2026 export workbook, retrieved 26 October 2026: original XLSX. Basmati rows 12 and 116 provide the monthly and cumulative comparisons. Dollar values are recorded in thousands; unit values here equal those figures multiplied by 1,000 and divided by metric tonnes.
• USDA Economic Research Service, Rice Outlook: October 2026, published 14 October 2026: report and downloads, Table 2, page 9.

PBS describes the release as provisional and notes that quantity data are estimated where necessary. Figures can be revised. Growth rates and unit values in this article are OneRice’s calculations from the retrieved data; buyer implications are editorial analysis.